Global Warming - The real inconvenient truth

Recently, the unusually warm weather across the United States has led to a flurry of claims that global warming is the culprit. In fact, I have had several discussions with close and very well educated friends, where they have voiced passionate arguments stating that global warming must be to blame. After all, in mid-January it was near 70 degrees F across the Northeast this weekend. What else could it be? Well, not to burst their collective bubbles, but I could not disagree more.

Now before I get four or five angry phone calls stating facts about record high temperatures and arguing that it is irresponsible for me to deny global warming, let me make myself clear. Global warming, that is increased average temperatures worldwide caused by man made pollution and green house gases, is real. Global warming is bad. Global warming must be stopped. That being said, I strongly believe global warming is not to blame for the recent warm temperatures or at least its contribution is negligible when compared to other natural factors.

I believe people are falling prey to recent and not-so-recent hyping of the global warming phenomenon. Not that it is not real, but it is NOWHERE near as imminent and drastic as some would have you believe. At worst, most scientists believe global warming may be responsible for one degree increase in temperature at any given place. Recently, although really for the last decade, some scientists trying to make a name for themselves and the media have exaggerated global warming into a pending disaster. Because really, who would care about global warming if it wasn't a threat right now?

People pay attention when they are scared. Showing pictures of predicted continent swallowing floods and natural disasters covering the Earth keeps their attention. Over the last couple years, Mother Nature has provided the media with a few isolated weather phenomenon that they have latched upon as clear examples of our pending doom. Hurricane Katrina, the recent warm spell in the Northeast, and even the tsunami have been used in this line. Scientists in the individual fields covering each of these events have clear explanations showing that these were not global warming or for that matter even unusual.

Hurricane Katrina was a normal hurricane, during hurricane season, that just happened to strike a highly populated and highly unprepared area. If hurricane Katrina had struck in the middle of winter and been the most powerful storm ever, maybe that would be some evidence that something had changed. But the only thing notable about Katrina was that it struck a city built below sea level. And to those who say that year there were an unusually high number of hurricanes, I say look at this year, when there was an unusually low number.

Meteorologists have almost unanimously stated that the current warm spell in the Northeast is caused by a depressed jet stream (not flowing up in Canada) and by a moderate El Nino, the cyclic warming and cooling of water in the Pacific ocean. The El Nino isn't even considered strong this year. We have seen this phenomenon and strange warm temperatures before (even in most of our lifetimes) and we will see them again. It is a cycle and a natural one. Sometimes you even hear people say, “this is one of the hottest years on record.” The time period where mankind recorded temperatures represents such a fractional amount of time versus what we did not record. Natural Earth temperature cycles take hundreds or even thousands of years. We just don’t have enough data to determine how much of any warming is the result of manmade conditions.

Lastly, and my personal favorite, is the belief that global warming caused the recent and devastating tsunami. Seismologists will tell you that the tsunami was caused by an underwater earthquake. Some earthquakes of the same magnitude will cause no waves at all. And some like this one cause devastatingly powerful waves. It all just depends on how things shake. This time it happened to shake in the wrong manner. I would argue that many of the deaths were caused by overpopulation of the coastal areas affected by the tsunami, but either way global warming had nothing to do with it.

All in all, although I agree global warming is bad, the evidence of massive changes caused by it is just not there. It is a slow and subtle phenomenon. The changes will be felt, but likely not significantly for a few generations to come. It will have potentially very serious effects, so what do we do about it? There are several things I would recommend, but none are easy.

The single most contributing factor to global warming is overpopulation. There are just too many people on the planet and WAY too many more coming soon. Lower the population and you reduce our strain on the Earth, in many ways including fossil fuel use. The problem is, who wants to be told not to reproduce? No one. Most Americans and global citizens would revolt if told they had to have a license to reproduce. We believe it is our God given right to reproduce, despite the cost it will pass on to our children.

So how about we try to limit our dependence on fossil fuels? Electric cars, hybrid vehicles, wind power, and solar power are NOT the answer. All of these solutions are just not as good as they may sound at first. Electric cars requiring charging. That electricity comes from a power plant. Power plants are overwhelmingly powered by, you guessed it, fossil fuels. Hybrid vehicles require massive and massively non-environmentally friendly battery arrays that need to be replaced several times throughout the life of the vehicle. Wind and solar power are fine to supplement a power grid, but what happens on a cloudy calm day?

The only feasible way to reduce our global dependence on fossil fuels right now is widespread adoption of nuclear power. The political ramifications of that are very complicated. The “civilized world” just doesn’t want the “uncivilized world” to have access to such dangerous materials and technology as they might not be able to deal with powerful weapons as responsibly as we do. Pardon me as I choke on the arrogance of such statements. That being said, I’m not sure I want the “elected presidents of about a dozen or so countries with the making of a bomb either. Like I said, it is complicated.

Then there are the safety concerns. The truth is nuclear power is the safest and cleanest power technology yet conceived. Unfortunately, the same media that bombards us with exaggerated reports on global warming, also has “educated” the public on how dangerous nuclear power is. Remember Three Mile Island? If you asked most people, they would say it was a melt down or a nuclear disaster. In fact it was a very limited release of radioactive material due to a small steam leak. The worst exposure from Three Mile Island was less than the exposure your average life guard receives from the sun over one summer. But remember, fear sells and the media did more damage to the future environment from that one story than a thousand 6.0 liter engines. No nuclear power plants have been built in the U.S. since that incident, not because of safety concerns, but because of misguided public sentiment.

In the end, nothing will change regarding our over use of fossil fuels until we demand it. The two greatest forces in the world, democracy and the free market system, just don’t care about the environment. Trees can’t vote and alternatives to fossil fuels are not competitively priced. Unless the public becomes educated and demands change even in the face of serious trade offs, things will keep getting warmer, although far slower than some would have you believe.